Canelo vs GGG Video Analysis and Prediction

Tale Of The Tape

Saul “Canelo” Alvarez                                Gennady “GGG” Golovkin

GGG’s Blueprint to Victory 

Kazakh Thunder

The most potent weapon GGG possesses is his unique power.

Judging by how little contact he needs to cause physical damage and the reaction of his opponents it’s plain to see GGG carries freakish power in both hands. The power advantage is something that is clearly on GGG’s side.

Pressure/Work Rate

GGG’s strength is dictating the pace of the fight and breaking opponents down, he is primarily a fighter who focuses on offence. Throughout his career, we have seen GGG stalk, trap, and punish opponents ruthlessly with a high volume of power punches.

In September of 2016, GGG took on Kell Brook who was moving up to middleweight for the first time in his career, being the lighter man you would have expected Brook to be the one to favour a high tempo. As the Compubox stats illustrate below that was not the case.

Over the course of 5 rounds, it was Kell Brook who was struggling to keep up with GGG’s fierce pressure, by the end of the fight he had thrown 40 more punches than Kell Brook and still looked the fresher of the two.

Granite Chin

GGG’s ability to take a good shot has enabled him to attack without having to worry excessively about making mistakes, we’ve seen Golovkin take a good shot and continue without any signs of trouble on multiple occasions.

Canelo’s Blueprint to Victory

Crafty Counters

One way to nullify oncoming pressure is to create consequences for mistakes, Canelo does this extremely well by reading punches and countering opponents. Although Canelo doesn’t have the type of power GGG carries, he does possess wonderful timing and speed which used effectively can be just as lethal.

Smart Defence

GGG & Canelo both welcome a scrap, the big difference between the two is that Canelo is more defensively responsible. Even during the heat of battle, Canelo takes calculated risks carefully weaving his head and body under attack whether he’s on the ropes or in the centre of the ring.

Familiar Surroundings

Canelo has been in fights of this magnitude before, this is the most important fight of his career also the most dangerous but Canelo has the benefit of sharing time in the ring with two all time greats.

The Mayweather fight was a tough defeat and yes Miguel Cotto was past his prime, however, the experience gained from those fights has been priceless.

Canelo is a much-improved fighter compared to the one who fought Floyd Mayweather, he displayed this in his tactical battle with Miguel Cotto where he showed that he is now better equipped to compete with a fighter of the finest quality.

Practice is the best form of preparation, for GGG the bright lights of Las Vegas, the big fight atmosphere, and the media leading up to the fight will be a first. Canelo has been here before.

At 27 Years old & still in his athletic prime Canelo has the experience of a seasoned veteran with all the benefits of being a young fighter.

Prediction 

There are two possible avenues I see this fight going down, the first scenario is GGG gives the same respect to Canelo that he gave Danny Jacobs and the fight is a technical affair focused more on scoring points than dealing damage.

The second scenario is GGG pushes a hard pace from the bell, all-out war ensues & the fight finishes within the distance.

You have on one hand an aggressive fighter who likes to take the initiative and be first to the punch, on the other hand, a fighter who prefers to let his opponent come on to him and counter.

The vital question in this fight? is GGG’s offence greater than Canelo’s ability to counter?

Irrespective of whichever route the fight ends up going down I think the combination of Canelo’s superior speed and GGG’s lack of speed,

will see Canelo beating GGG to the punch for the majority of the contest.

Of all the opponents GGG has faced I see some similarities between Canelo and Kell Brook.

Brook’s sharp counter punching skills, movement, and speed gave GGG serious problems. What Kell Brook lacked was the size and power of a genuine middleweight which I expect Canelo to have.

Canelo is a better fighter than anyone GGG has ever fought, the same statement isn’t true for Canelo, so I assume it will take GGG a little longer to adjust to Canelo’s style.

There could be some hairy moments for Canelo, he may even need to get up off the canvas to win but once he gets a feel for GGG’s rhythm his finer boxing skills will be the defining factor which separates the two men.

Saul “Canelo” Alvarez wins on points