Written by Derek Moody, June 16, 2016, at 6:08 p.m. Tweet to: @DerekMoody619
Rory “Red King” MacDonald #1 (18-3 9-3 UFC) versus Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson #2 (12-1 7-1 UFC) will be labeled a classic when UFC Fight Night in Ottawa is over Saturday night. A technical fight matched of this caliber only happens maybe twice a year. Most recently we were able to witness the technical prowess on display between TJ Dillashaw and Dominick Cruz.
When it comes to a chess match in the Octagon, Canada isn’t typically the fondest scenery. The Japanese and Brazilian crowds tend to appreciate the technicality of a successful ground transition or sweep a bit more. There has been times where the Canadians were strictly seeking blood and unconsciousness, which I don’t disagree with but I’m all for a technical struggle seeing who can gain the advantage.
UFC Fight Night in Ottawa, may be the turning point as the most technical guy on the roster headlines the card. All signs lead to an epic war that may only end with a mistake being made or a risk being taken. Canada’s Red King vs America’s Wonderboy, who could ask for a better match up? This fight alone should steal the attention of the UFC 200 weekly charades. It’s also a more entertaining matchup than majority of what’s on the extremely stacked UFC 200 fight card.
Rory MacDonald’s Keys To Victory
The typical strategy, distance striking picking apart the opposition, may not be very successful here as Wonderboy is a master with his movement and evasive defense. Rory will have to either blitz or catch Wonderboy doing a blitz and earn the takedown. The most success will come in the ground game, it’s rare someone has better stand up than Rory but this definitely isn’t the fight to prove his stand up is superior.
In Thompson’s lone defeat, he was overwhelmed with the takedowns which were a result from his kicks being caught and the distance being closed. Matt Brown was very effective smothering Thompson which will be key in this fight as well. With all the experience gained in both Lawler fights, Rory found ways to adapt winning several rounds almost ending both fights multiple times.
Stephen Thompson’s Keys To Victory
It’s all about distance, Wonderboy needs to stay away from Rory as much as possible. As fights go on, Rory builds a rhythm that just about breaks every opponent’s momentum which translates to disaster. If Thompson can keep his distance, he can work his kicks flowing in and out like usual. Over time the damage from the kicks will gradually take it’s toll presenting other openings that lead to a finish. Thompson went 57-0 when he was a kickboxer so striking from distance is a major asset here.
Aside from distance, stuffing as many takedown attempts as possible is priority. Thompson doesn’t want another outcome like the Matt Brown fight which was a result of catching kicks and repeated takedowns. As much movement as possible is necessary; being flat footed for too long is very dangerous when facing a strategist like MacDonald. The wide variety of strikes that he implores will be there for him, it’s the defensive side of his game plan that’ll make or break this championship eliminator fight. Distance, timed sprawls and great movement should help give him the edge he’s looking for.
Red King vs. Wonderboy Outcomes: MacDonald via Decision, Thompson via TKO
It’s extremely difficult to go against someone as seasoned in the Octagon as Rory MacDonald who relatively has no weaknesses. MacDonald has a very durable chin, an excellent gas tank and one of if not the best, balance of offense and defense. MacDonald has faced just about everybody in the welterweight division in contention of the title and dominated them. In both fights with the current champ, Robbie Lawler, he lost a close split decision and lost via tko in the final round where he was up on the scorecards.
In his loss to Carlos Condit, he was seven seconds away from winning a decision as well, that sums up his three losses. Rory has the ability to out-strike and stop just about anyone in the division. Submitting them wouldn’t be much harder either as he usually has an elaborate strategy that focuses on disrupting the opponent’s strategy. There are maybe two guys who have a gas tank as full as Rory’s, I don’t see Thompson as one of those two guys so going the distance favors the Red King.
Thompson has seen defeat once in his mma career and understands how and why that loss took place. Wonderboy has done fairly well avoiding takedowns, clinches and dirty boxing since his loss. Wrestling was Thompson’s setback but he is focused to not allow it to scar his resume the way it scarred Anthony Pettis’. If on his back, Thompson does have a level of comfort training Brazilian Jiu Jitsu under the legendary Carlos Machado.
With the win over Johny Hendricks, Thompson clearly entered his prime and the time is now. Five of his seven UFC wins have been via knockout/technical knockout primarily coming in the 1st round. Thompson is looking to get in and get out in similar fashion to the Hendricks fight. The longer the fight goes, the harder it is to be elusive with his style which can lead to predictable strikes in championship rounds.
At UFC 199, I did my prediction on the main fight making a smart well thought out pick not involving my heart and I was wrong. My mind said Luke Rockhold, while my heart said Michael Bisping. Normally they’re on the same page but once again they’re not. The smart mindful pick would be Rory MacDonald, anybody would be crazy to go against that pick seeing the evolution that has lead to the Red King. I guess I’m crazy because this week I’m taking the long shot and going with my heart.
Prediction: Stephen Thompson via TKO
