Written by Derek Moody, July 6, 2016, at 7:15 p.m. Tweet to: @DerekMoody619
The TUF 23 Finale main event is a grudge match that has built up over a year. The current champion, Joanna Jedrzejczyk, pulled the upset win over the woman expected to face Carla Esparza, Claudia Gadelha. Gadelha was on the fast track to stardom, win two fights and the title shot is yours.
If given that title shot, it was apparent she’d strip the belt from Esparza due to her aggressive style. Entering the UFC, there was already hype surrounding her as if this weight class was made for her to reign over. Whenever a strawweight fight would take place, her name was consistently brought up. She was undefeated and known for finishing fights with her vicious armbars.
Gadelha’s opponent, Joanna Jedrzejczyk, the current Women’s Strawweight Champion is looking for her third successful defense. A fierce striker who developed a following in the kickboxing realm, JJ had ambitions for more. She’s not a household name to the casual MMA fan, so she didn’t have much praise when she entered the Octagon.
Obviously, having an undefeated record will always catch the audience’s attention but style and dominance will keep it. Never running or backing down, JJ captured audience’s around the world for her overwhelmingly accurate striking. As a result of her striking, she earned a title shot and put the entire division on notice as she destroyed the inaugural champ.
Summary of the First Fight
It was almost impossible for someone to fully believe Gadelha didn’t win the fight looking at the fight stats. She pulled off seven takedowns, had over eight minutes of ground control landing twelve more strikes while throwing thirty less than Jedrzejczyk. The numbers don’t always depict what took place during the fight as scoring is on a 10 point must system.
It’s clear that Round One was Joanna’s round because of the knockdown towards the end of that round. It was a close round but a knockdown means a lot in terms of scoring.
Round Two, Gadelha earned three takedowns but did absolutely nothing with them. Jedrzejczyk was able to double the amount of significant strikes inflicting more damage. Gadelha was cut from an unintentional headbutt in round one leaving a target for Jedrzejczyk.
Hopefully the judges didn’t give her points thinking she opened Gadelha up with a strike. Regardless she won Round One and Round Two was a toss up when considering three takedowns versus significant strikes.
Round Three was clearly for Gadelha, no disputing that across the board.  Gadelha was able to land three more takedowns and effectively out work Jedrzejczyk in the striking column. The advantage that Jedrzejczyk usually gets is the judge’s attention when the fight ends as she stalks her opponent in Robbie Lawler fashion. It’s certainly helped Lawler win a few fights by leaving a lasting impression that possibly guides the judges to forget about the first four minutes and thirty seconds of the round.
Keys to Victory for Jedrzejczyk
Joanna Jedrzejczyk already owns a victory over Claudia Gadelha though it was controversial. Joanna will have to avoid the takedowns at all cost to come out victorious in this title defense. She was unable to evade the takedowns thrown her way which resulted in her on her back seven different times. Joanna’s footwork has greatly improved helping her achieve better angles in her past three fights. Her punch volume will have to double that of Gadelha’s to sway the judges if a decision is to decide the winner.
Joanna would lose in the ground game and control department so her stand up has to be on point. She’ll have to rely on movement by never being flat footed for too long. If Joanna becomes complacent for a moment the takedown will arise and she’ll lose points fast. The gameplan is simple, stick and move find her distance and sprawl as if every takedown attempt was the final 30 seconds of the fight.
Keys to Victory for Gadelha
Almost the entire media chose her as the winner as did one of the three judges. When looking at the numbers it’s almost impossible to see a decision loss for Gadelha. Her main to key to victory is not leaving this fight up to the judges; finish the fight before the bell rings in 25 minutes.
Her gameplan has to be takedown heavy, attempt after attempt overwhelming the champ. Cain Velasquez has perfected the barrage of takedowns that it takes to thwart your opponent’s gameplan and draining their energy completely. It becomes so overwhelming that you can see them mentally breaking wanting to verbally tap. If Gadelha can do that, she’ll become the first Brazilian ufc women’s champion.
Possible Outcomes for TUF 23 Finale
Jedrzejczyk via Dec, Jedrzejczyk via TKO, Gadelha via Dec
The rivalry between these two has built up to the point that they want to put each other out on medical suspension. Jedrzejczyk and Gadelha are very reminiscent of Ronda Rousey and Miesha Tate. Tate came up short twice against Rousey.
Gadelha may see the same fate if her game plan doesn’t workout. Should she lose twice to the champ, she may have to take a Tate like avenue and gain another shot once someone else dethrones the champ. Definitely the road less taken, this route takes longer but getting the title is the goal no matter how it comes about.
It’s always satisfying to beat your nemesis but some fighters are just in that moment where they can’t be shook. The same scenarios also go for Daniel Cormier and Frankie Edgar should they lose their rematches. We’d all love to see 25 minutes of action but that may not be the case on Friday. I see the fast precise hands of the champ making this a short night as long as she can get back to her feet if taken down.
Prediction: Jedrzejczyk via TKO
