Written by Kaiana Miller, April 20, 2016, at 1:13 p.m.
This weekend in Las Vegas, two former champions and one former Olympian compete for a chance once more at glory. Former light heavyweight champion Jon Jones makes his much anticipated return to the Octagon against late replacement Ovince Saint Preux. Olympic gold medalist Henry Cejudo looks to capture UFC gold by defeating one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world, Demetrious Johnson. Anthony Pettis makes his return to the octagon after two straight losses, looking to regain his glory and get another crack at the lightweight title.
Jon Jones (-550 favorite) vs Ovince Saint Preux (+375 underdog)
Enigmatic former UFC light heavyweight champion Jon “Bones” Jones makes his first appearance since January of 2015 after a suspension due to well documented legal troubles. In his time off Jones began power lifting (if you follow him on twitter or instagram, you know this).
Jones was originally slated to face off against rival Daniel Cormier for the belt, but due to injury Cormier was forced to pull out. Now Jones is fighting for the interim title due to mostly marketing reasons.
What Jones truly wants is the fight against Cormier to prove that he is the true champion by beating DC again and getting the belt that he was stripped of back. Perhaps the greatest fighter of all time, Jones is good everywhere the fight takes place.
He utilizes his tremendous reach extremely well on the feet, keeping his opponent out of range will landing crisp straight punches. “Bones” has a variety of strikes that he utilizes with all of his appendages, often throwing oblique kicks to the knee and spinning back elbows that throw off his opponent.
His MMA wrestling is unparalleled in the division, he even got the best of the former Olympian Cormier in their first fight. It would be impossible to list everything that Jones does well. Inside the octagon, there truly is nothing that Jones cannot due. Finally sober (that’s what he claims at least), Jones could be the best we’ve ever seen him this weekend.
Ovince Saint Preux is one of the few top ranked light heavyweight fighters that Jones has not fought. OSP prefers to keep the fight standing until he can land his big left hand, though he has an under appreciated submission game from top if he does get the fight to the ground. His striking is awkward and unorthodox, which can be a positive as much as a negative.
His footwork is unpolished and he often throws punches with one, or both, feet off of the ground. Saint Preux uses his natural athleticism well in the early stages of each fight, circling away from his opponents while throwing counter punches with his left hand. His initial takedown defense is above average and he has a nice reactive shot to get opponents down when they over commit. His cardio is suspect at best and considering he only has a three week camp, this could be bad for OSP if it gets out of the first round.
Ring rust may be a factor in this fight for Jones, but realistically Saint Preux’s only legitimate chance at victory here is if he flash KOs Jones in the first round. Jones is too skilled and too smart to get caught by OSP, instead he takes him to the ground early and tires him out. After Saint Preux is exhausted, Jones will lock in a submission and earn his rematch with Daniel Cormier later this year. Jones by second-round submission.
Demetrious Johnson (-400 favorite) vs Henry Cejudo (+300 underdog)
“Mighty Mouse” is the fighter you want aspiring mixed martial artists to watch to learn technique. Almost everything he does is technically sound. Johnson flows from takedowns to strikes and vice-versa seamlessly. His cardio is outstanding and his ability to keep pressure on his opponents is almost unmatched in the UFC. He has finished four of his last six opponents, but fans see him as a boring fighter due to his preference to maintain top control on the ground while consistently hitting his opponents with short strikes to wear them down.
Although he has a clean knockout victory against Joe Benavidez, Johnson is not known for his knockout power, often winning in the later stages of the fight or on the judges’ score cards. Defensively, Johnson is good at avoiding strikes with head movement and reactive takedowns. If there is one weakness he has defensively, it is his bad habit of backing straight up when his opponent throws combinations. If taken down, Johnson has been susceptible to being controlled by bigger opponents (i.e. Dominick Cruz and Brad Pickett).
Henry Cejudo is known for being the youngest American gold medalist in Olympic history. His wrestling pedigree is well known. However, he has preferred to use his wrestling more defensively in order to set up his striking thus far in his MMA career.
Cejudo is a former Golden-Gloves champion and is thus a sound boxer. He rarely drops his hands after throwing punches and has added a solid kicking game to his repertoire. Cejudo has also shown a nice ability to counter punch and circle away when his opponent decides to move forward while throwing combinations. He has never been taken down in the octagon and he has out struck every opponent he has faced thus far.
The deciding factor in this fight should be Cejudo’s defensive wrestling. He has yet to be taken down in his career, but Johnson could very well change that. If Cejudo is able to defend Johnson’s takedowns it would effectively turn him into a one dimensional fighter. This is Cejudo’s best path to victory; make Johnson one dimensional and then pressure him on the feet.
If Johnson backs straight up, Cejudo should be able to throw combinations that land. If he can mix in takedowns here and there he could be the man to unseat Johnson from his flyweight thrown. I expect Johnson to land one or two takedowns in the mid rounds, but ultimately for Cejudo to control the location of the fight while outlanding Johnson on the feet, albeit slightly. Cejudo by decision is the pick.
Anthony Pettis (-175 favorite) vs Edson Barboza (+145 underdog)
Pettis comes in off the heels of his second loss in a row. He was visibly disappointed after dropping a split-decision to Eddie Alvarez and he expressed his desire to fight someone who would put on a show for the fans with him (he lost his last two fights by decision from being controlled on the ground). The UFC honored this request and Pettis will face off against another prolific striker in Edson Barboza. Pettis is at his best when he can maintain kickboxing distance and throw his spectacular strikes when he wants. His weakness has always been opponents with good wrestling that constantly pressure him.
“Showtime” likes to set his kicks up with punches. Often throwing straight lefts before coming over the top with a high kick. His submission game off his back his sneaky and beautiful, just watch his second fight with Benson Henderson. A win here would earn Pettis another big name fight, maybe even a fight at UFC 200 against the now opponent-less Nate Diaz.
Edson Barboza is best known for his spinning wheel kick knockout over Terry Etim. Barboza also prefers to stand and strike at kickboxing range. He is big for a lightweight and can overwhelm smaller opponents when given the opportunity. He has shown a susceptibility to being submitted when he gets careless on the ground.
I think Pettis comes out motivated in this one. Barboza’s size may give “Showtime” trouble early on, but Barboza isn’t a pressure fighter like Rafael Dos Anjos or Eddie Alvarez. Pettis will bide his time before landing a kick to the head and ending the fight with follow up punches. “Showtime” wins by second-round TKO and hopefully sets up a fight with Nate Diaz at UFC 200.
How do you all see these fights going? Am I crazy in picking the huge underdog Cejudo to beat “Might Mouse“? Does OSP have a real chance? Will Barboza hand Pettis his third straight loss? Comment below!!
