UFC 195 THOUGHTS and PREDICTIONS
By Scott Beers @skottbeers
Dec 28, 2015
What: UFC 195 Lawler vs. Condit
Where: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
When: Saturday, the three-fight Fight Pass Preliminary card starts at 6:30pm EST, the four-fight Fox Sports 1 preliminary card begins at 8:00pm, and the five-fight pay per view card airs at 10:00pm EST.
Robbie Lawler vs. Carlos Condit
UFC 195 is a tough sell, ending debatably the best year with what appears to be the worst UFC Pay-Per-View on paper. Carlos Condit, a natural born striker who most would say shouldn’t be fighting for the 170 strap just yet, versus Robbie Lawler, the newly minted welterweight king with one hell of a title defense under his new belt. If we take a peek at Robbie’s last three title fights, he barely won two, and barely lost the other. The welterweight division has been surprisingly more exciting since Georges St. Pierre’s’ departure, and also far more competitive. People were not happy with the way GSP or Hendricks fought. Hendricks may now be one of the most disliked top ranked fighters in the game. Now we’re presented with the exact opposite for the same title that GSP held for nine consecutive title defenses. Two fighters who are going in there to finish or gas out trying; likely without attempting a single takedown. Both Lawler and Condit are brawlers who have become more technical and well-rounded. It’s unlikely Lawler will take it to the ground, as Condit’s guard is dangerously offensive. Condit’s offensive wrestling is rare to see, so don’t expect it. Even if one of these fighters is dangerously hurt, they’ll more likely go out swinging than try a take down.
Pick: Condit by TKO, round three.
Stipe Miocic vs. Andrei Arlovski
Pick: Arlovski Decision
Lorenz Larkin vs. Albert Tumenov
Can you believe Larkin beat Lawler just a few years back in Strikeforce? Neither fighter here is ranked which disappoints me as it’s the 3rd fight on the per per view. The UFC has pushed the former main event fight night bout to the Fight Pass main event (Poirier vs. Duffee), in efforts to increase sales of the service and therefore degrading the main PPV card. The Russian born Tumenov has looked great at 4-1 in the UFC winning his last four. Lorenz is 2-0 at welterweight winning bonuses both times. Lorenz being the more technical overall kickboxer, I expect to see him pick Tumenov apart slowly. At any moment, The Russian could end the fight with a punch from either fist.
Pick: Larkin by TKO round three.
Diego Brandao vs. Brian Ortega
Pick: Ortega by submission round two.
Abel Trujillo vs. Tony Simms
Tony who? Why is he kicking off the main card? Granted, he is the slight betting favorite… can’t even find a wikipedia page on the guy. Most are familiar with Trujillo, the muscular lightweight with the tattooed necklace. Abel is coming off two losses, his last to Tibau will likely be changed to a no contest due to Tibau being busted for EPO (one of Lance Armstrong’s favorite PEDs) due to USADA’s new drug testing program. His other only two losses in the UFC are to Tony Ferguson (potential next lightweight title challenger), and Khabib Nurmagomedov (the uncrowned champion who can’t seem to get healthy). If Simms can’t get Trujillo down, Abel should run through Tony Simms quickly via powerful punch combinations.
Pick: Trujillo by KO round one
From the preliminary card:
McDonald def. Kanehara Noke def. Morono
Kish def. Ansaroff Dober def. Holtzman Duffee def. Poirier
Soto def. Tanaka Westcott def. Garcia
Pay Per View Buys Prediction: 150- 200k