Main Event: Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Conor McGregor (UFC Lightweight Title)
Betting Odds: Khabib -149 or 5/8, McGregor +150 or 13/10.
A competitive rivalry has now become personal between two fighters who are stubbornly proud of their moral code. Each man feels disrespected by the other party, the incident at UFC 223 in which Conor McGregor launched a loading dolly towards a bus that Khabib was inside of is the moment this fight gathered global interest.
There’s so much more to this fight than the drama of the bus attack and the subsequent legal proceedings.
Conor McGregor’s last fight inside of the Octagon was a historic one, he became the only man to hold two UFC titles simultaneously (at that time) by defeating Eddie Alvarez at UFC 205 in November of 2016, UFC 205 was also the first event in the company’s history to be held at Madison Square Garden.
There was no contender that made financial sense for McGregor following the victory, he pursued a more lucrative opportunity instead challenging Floyd Mayweather to a boxing match. McGregor was unsurprisingly defeated but did his reputation no harm, he performed a lot better than many predicted he even stole a few of the early rounds before Mayweather eventually broke him down.
The crossover event as a whole was a huge success. A memorable press tour the likes of which we’ll probably never see again helped to sell 4.2 million PPV buys, only one event (Mayweather vs Pacquiao) has sold more. With a reported $100 million in the bank the gamble paid off, he didn’t win, though in truth he had almost nothing to lose, the Exhibition fight with Floyd has made him even more marketable than he already was.
Very rarely does a fighter gain something in defeat, now after almost two years away from MMA the biggest challenge of Conor McGregor’s fighting career is on the horizon.
A constant criticism of Mcgregor is he’s had favourable matchups, McGregor was awarded a featherweight title shot after beating one guy ranked in the top five and that opponent (Chad Mendes) stepped in without having a full camp to prepare. As a Lightweight McGregor was granted an immediate title shot & upon claiming the title he never defended it, in fact, McGregor’s held 4 titles in his career without defending any of them which is highly unusual.
Step forward Khabib Nurmagomedov, out of all the fighters McGregor has fought Khabib presents the biggest threat. Khabib’s fighting style is the polar opposite of Mcgregor who I would consider a specialist in striking, Khabib is a specialist in grappling. McGregor’s best performances can be easily quantified because they often end with a stoppage, no less impressive is Khabib who has fought 29 rounds in the UFC without officially ever losing one, 29 rounds in the deepest weight division of all without losing a single round, that sort of dominance is extraordinary.
Whilst McGregor was chasing fame & riches the promise Khabib had shown many years ago in his injury-plagued career was finally realised when he destroyed Edson Barboza to set up a title fight.
The championship fight was scheduled to be Khabib against Tony Ferguson, an injury to Ferguson in the weeks leading up to the fight meant it was called off for the third time in recent years. Al Iaquinta took Ferguson’s place in the main event, the vacated lightweight title would still be on the line for Khabib but due to Iaquinta weighing in two-tenths of a pound over the weight limit he was ineligible to win the title.
Khabib was victorious with scores of 50-43, 50-43, & 50-44, not his greatest performance by any means but dominant once again, more importantly, Khabib captured the vacant lightweight title.
McGregor is the most valuable fighter on the planet right now, he brings an army of fans wherever he fights, Popular even outside of his own country. There’s no athlete who is better at self-promoting an event than McGregor and that is what attracts the type of fans who wouldn’t usually buy a UFC PPV event. He brings a wider audience to the sport.
Khabib doesn’t have the same financial appeal, his following is equally loyal. A Dagestani born Russian representing a country with a population of 144 million people, on top of that a practising Muslim, an even bigger target audience of roughly 1.8 billion, there’s no shortage of love for Khabib Nurmagomedov.
The card is expected to be the biggest in UFC’s short history, both in terms of mass appeal and PPV buys, the UFC’s biggest star pitted against his toughest adversary.
Some fights have the chemistry to be all-time classics, this one not so much. Khabib is strong in McGregor’s weak are, McGregor is strong in Khabib’s weak area. The only two outcomes I see are Mcgregor knocking out Khabib early or Khabib wearing McGregor down with his wrestling. The interest surrounding this fight is intense, probability wise it’s as close to a 50-50 fight as you’re ever likely to see.
On paper you would have to give a slight edge to Khabib, McGregor has been out of the octagon for two years whilst Khabib has been active, he comes from a camp which boasts multiple current and former UFC champions in Daniel Cormier, Cain Velasquez, & Luke Rockhold. Khabib is undefeated without ever dropping a single round however, McGregor is a completely different animal to anyone Khabib has fought before.
The Irishman is capable of remarkable things especially concerning the mental game, he only needs a slight look to make something happen and that’s something you can’t explain with statistics, it’s an immeasurable quality.
Co-Main: Tony Ferguson vs Anthony Pettis
Betting Odds: Ferguson -310 or 2/7, Pettis +299 or 11/4.
This card top to bottom isn’t as strong as some of the other big UFC pay-per-view shows in years gone by but the two fights at the top of the card are worth the price alone.
Tony Ferguson is on a 10 fight win streak stretching back to 2013, only Max Holloway, Jon Jones, & Georges St-Pierre have greater active consecutive win streaks as of this moment. Ferguson has an unorthodox style which may not be easy on the eye, however, it’s undoubtedly effective.
He blends together all aspects of mixed martial arts in an unpredictable manner that opponents thus far have had no answer too, at least not in a long while.
The winner of TUF 13 has steadily improved over his 5 years in the UFC, had he not been the victim of a freak injury Ferguson may himself be headlining UFC 229. There’s never a certainty when it comes to number one contenders, in this case, common sense should prevail because if Tony Ferguson wins this fight he is the obvious choice for the winner of the main event.
All is not straightforward when it comes to matchmaking, Anthony Pettis who looked as good in his last fight as he did during his run to the title is hoping to throw a spanner in the works. A former champion at age 26 when he defeated Benson Henderson.
Pettis looked destined for a long reign as champion. He was usurped by Rafael Dos Anjos after managing just one defence before losing the flair that saw him light up the MMA world in his earlier career.
This is a dangerous fight for Ferguson, Pettis can rival him on the floor or on the feet, he has the ability to finish the fight in an instant. One of the most creative strikers, one of the most opportunistic finishers, stylistically there’s no easy route to victory for Ferguson.
Pettis is 2-2 in his last four so you wouldn’t think the same rewards apply to Pettis for winning this fight. A fighter who either looks overwhelming or underwhelming Pettis’s biggest problem has been inconsistent performances. If he can replicate the kind of form we saw him display between 2010 & 2015 against a fighter as good as Tony Ferguson then Pettis would be right up there with the top five in the division.
Anthony “Showtime” Pettis looks at his best under the brightest lights, at UFC 226 he turned back the clock with a crafty submission over grappler Michael Chiesa,
There’s also the possibility Pettis could provide another showtime moment like the jumping kick he performed in the final WEC event, the aggressive nature of Ferguson always gives his opponents a chance. Pettis has the tools to upset the odds.
Predictions
Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Conor McGregor (Khabib TKO/Ref Stoppage)Â
Tony Ferguson vs Anthony Pettis (Ferguson Decision)
Ovince Saint Preux vs Dominick Reyes (Reyes KO/TKO)
Derrick Lewis vs Alexander Volkov (Volkov Decision)
Michelle Waterson vs Felice Herrig (Herrig Decision)
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