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Thursday, May 2, 2024

UFC Fight Night 164 Blachowicz vs Jacare – Analysis and Predictions

World class MMA returns to Brazil

UFC Fight Night 164 is all set to be yet another show stopper as fighters from around the world make their way to Sao Paolo, Brazil to compete and prove who is the greatest fighter on the planet. Headlining the Saturday night event is former KSW Light Heavyweight Champion Jan Błachowicz, who is set to square off with ex-Strikeforce Middleweight Champion Ronaldo Souza.

Jan Błachowicz on a mountain
Jan Błachowicz on a mountain

Blachowicz is a -200 favorite in Jacare’s light-heavyweight debut. While Blachowicz took a decisive loss to Thiago Silva in February, he rebounded with a dominant win over Luke Rockhold in July, giving him five wins in his last six. He’s the better striker and, as a more natural light-heavyweight, should be able to control where the fight takes place, nullifying Souza’s sizable jiu-jitsu edge.

Souza, however, will likely be looking to capitalize on the success of his countryman Santos, and utilize his top-notch grappling skills to his advantage throughout the fight. Souza is considered by many to be one of the top jiu-jitsu artists in the game as well, and will be seeking to use these skills to get an edge. Those jiu-jitsu skills also give Souza a fierce ground game, and fight fans might remember how Souza used those abilities to perfection against fellow expert grappler Gegard Mousasi at Fight Night 50 back in 2014. Moving up to the 205 lb weight class, however, might pose a challenge for the long-time middleweight, and only time will tell how that plays out.

Ronaldo Souza
Ronaldo Souza

Blachowicz, for his part, will likely fall back on his kickboxing skills to keep the Brazilian at bay, relying on sound fundamentals and tactical striking rather than brute force to give him the edge in the fight.  That said, however, Blachowicz’s grappling and submission skills should not be discounted, and last September the Polish-born fighter was able to control and submit Nikita Krylov at UFC Fight Night 136 less than three minutes into the second round with a modified arm triangle. 

Both fighters are entering into this bout with a wealth of experience under their belts as well. Souza has recent losses to Robert Whittaker and Kelvin Gastelum, as well as a victory of ex-middleweight champ Chris Weidman – all of which were fights that the Brazilian brawler has likely learned and adapted from. Blachowicz is no spring chicken either, and with losses in the past to big names like Thiago Santos and Alexander Gustaffson, he is entering the octagon fresh off of a knockout victory over Luke Rockhold.

UFC Ring Girls pose in Japan
UFC Ring Girls pose in Japan

Blachowicz and Souza is not the only fight to watch that night.

Mauricio “Shogun” Rua is promising to grab some headlines during his clash with the Scottish-born Paul Craig. Rua, a veteran in the world of MMA,  is a former UFC champion who’s gone tow-to-toe with some of the best in the business with matchups against Jon Jones, Chael Sonnen, Chuck Liddell, and back-to-back title fights with Lyoto Machida. Rua is also widely known through the combat sports world for his aggressive striking and his excellent use of muay thai, skills which we are sure to see put on full display during Saturday night’s bout.

Craig, while not quite as experienced, says that he has no problems getting into the ring with Rua and is embracing the opportunity to face such a veteran fighter. “When you have the opportunity to fight a legend such as Shogun, you have to take it,” Craig told Ag Fight. His confidence seemed even greater in a separate talk with Bloody Elbow, telling reporters “it’s going to be a very interesting fight, but we won’t change our gameplan for him. Of course, if we can finish it early, we will.”

Mauricio “Shogun” Rua
Mauricio “Shogun” Rua

And Craig isn’t just talk – he has the skills to back up those words. The Scottsman is currently 4-4 in the UFC and has proven that he can hang in until the very last minute. Two of his last three victories, in fact, were scored during the final minute of combat including a submission of Magomed Ankalev at 4:59 during the final round of a three-round battle.

If Craig can pull of a victory in this fight he will add quite a notch in his belt – albeit perhaps not as impressive as it might have been a decade ago. Even with his age, however, Rua is still expected to put up a phenomenal performance and is considered to be the -285 favorite by the sportsmakers out in Vegas. 

Paul Craig
Paul Craig

There was a late minute change of plans on the card as well.

Women’s flyweight Veronica Macedo was ruled medically unfit to compete against Ariane Lipski, prompting newcomer Isabella de Padua to fill the role on just one day’s notice. De Padua, a native Brazilian, is on a five straight win streak and most recently dropped Rayanne Amanda with a TKO in October. For Lipski, this is her moment to shine, as it would be her first win with the UFC after losses to Molly McCann in June and Joanne Calderon during her promotional debut in January. 

Between the Blachwicz-Souza brawl, the Rua-Craig clash, and Lipski’s new shot at her first win, UFC Fight Night 164 is already gearing up to be one to remember. When you add in all the excitement that the rest of the undercards are sure to bring, one things seems certain – this Saturday’s showdown in Sao Paolo is going to be unforgettable. 

 


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